GEORGE W. BUSH
(BUSH 43) 

The fifth study question asks you to react to the generalization that, no matter what one thinks of Bill Clinton as a statesman, he is certainly a skilled politician and a good example of the generalization that nations get the leaders they deserve.  The same might be said of both George W. Bush.

Initially, at least, George Bush didn’t face the same kind of obstacles Clinton did: he was nowhere near the same kind of long-shot candidate.  He came from a wealthy and powerful family with plenty of political connections.  Unlike Hillary Clinton, Bush’s wife Laura was a more traditional political wife.  She had a career of her own (first as a 2nd grade teacher, then, after getting her MA, as a librarian), but she focused on more traditional “first lady” issues when her husband became Texas governor (education, literacy, health issues.)  Bush earned his undergraduate degree at Yale and an MBA at Harvard.  He worked in the oil business and, for a time, co-owned the Texas Rangers.  He was an unsuccessful candidate for congress, but, in 1994, became governor of Texas.

Now obviously it’s never easy to win the presidency, but Bush had a big head start—with one glaring weakness.  Bush was a terrible political speaker.  It was painful to listen to him in the 2000 Republican debates.  Nevertheless, Bush won out over a fairly impressive field of rivals, largely because the Republicans needed (as so often) a compromise candidate, a man acceptable both to the conservative Republicans and to the establishment big-business Republicans.

The Democrats likewise had something of a compromise candidate: Al Gore.  Gore likewise from an old established political family.  Initially, he was one of those moderate-appearing southern Democrats that Ron Brown believed key to Democratic success at the national level.  Gore was initially a pro-lifer—and his wife ultimately led a campaign to try to tame-down some of the offensive stuff in the entertainment industry. Gore had, of course, the problem that he was Clinton’s VP.  Yet, fortunately for him, the “it’s all about sex” mantra meant that the scandals of the Clinton administration weren’t quite the weight for him they might have been.

The 2000 election was exceptionally close, with Gore seeming to win the popular vote total (once again, voter fraud was an enormous problem).  As to the electoral college vote—well, that was a problem.  Early on election night—while the polls were still open in fact—the network news shows called Florida for Gore.  But, as the vote totals came in, they had to take back the call, and, when the dust had cleared in the morning, it looked like Bush had won a narrow victory in FL and the presidency.

The close vote triggered an automatic recount.  Bush still came out ahead, but be an even narrower margin.  And so we were in for more recounts—and, for days and days, it wasn’t clear who the president was going to be.  Not until December 9—more than a month later—did the Supreme Court finally end the battle.

The Democrats were angry—and afraid.   The Republicans controlled both houses of congress and the presidency—by slim margins, to be sure.  The senate was 50-50 with VP Dick Cheney the tie-breaker vote.  But it was a scary situation for the democrats and liberals in general—and we had a situation very much like the Hayes/Tilden aftermath.  There was going to be no honeymoon for this president! Angry Clinton staffers even removed the “W’s” from keyboards in the Whitehouse before they left!

Bush responded very graciously.  Here’s his inaugural address:

http://www.bartleby.com/124/pres66.html

Note what could have happened.  Bush and the Republicans now had the ability to investigate all the scandals of the Clinton years—but they didn’t.  Why not?  Statesmanship?  Other priorities?  Who knows?

In any case, the situation soon became considerably less scary for the Democrats.  On May 24, one Republican senator, Jim Jeffords, decided to jump ship—and the Republicans were in the minority once again.  Dems and Republicans would have to work together.  A good thing?  Not necessarily.

Bush worked with Jim Jeffords, Ted Kennedy and others to draft the No Child Left Behind Act.  Sometimes, the only thing I like less that the disputes between are political parties is the times when they are on the same page!

But then: the game-changer.  September 11, 2001—a terrorist attack directly on the United States.  Here was the big challenge of the Bush presidency: how would he respond?

Well, the best defense if a good offensive—and Bush went on the offensive, but in an unusual way. 

October 7, 2001—Operation Enduring Freedom.  We sent troops to Afghanistan—and, in an amazingly short time, we had the Taliban on the run.

Opinions of Bush changed drastically.  His speeches during this period were extraordinarily well received, and presiding over a military victory—well, it’s not hard to see why Bush, all-of-a-sudden went from the approval gutter to the stratosphere.  And this led to something very unusual.  In midterm elections, a president’s party almost always loses seats.  This time, the Republicans gained 2 senate seats and 8 house seats—control of the senate again!

Naturally enough, Bush followed up a sort-of electoral mandate with more of the same..

November 25, 2002—Homeland Security.  We established a new government agencies to coordinate all efforts to identify potential terrorists and protect the Home front.

March 19, 2003—Operation Iraqi Freedom.  We invaded Iraq and, in short order, Saddam Hussein’s government fell.

Looking good for Bush, and, in 2004 he won re-election over his Dem opponent John Kerry—while the republicans gained 3 more senate seats and 4 house seats.

But the left still controlled one branch of government—the press.  And, just as with Nixon, the media began hammering away, throwing everything they could at Bush—enough negatives that, in 2006, the Republicans lost 31 seats in the House—making Nancy Pelosi the speaker—and the senate as well, with the Dems getting s slim 51-49 margin.

And the press continued to hammer away at Bush.

[Lecture sometimes includes material from on old “Thoughts on Bush” sheet that details the may complaints the press had about Bush and labeled scandals.  Most of these were policy differences rather than charges of corruption or other wrong-doing. ]

Many of the attacks on Bush were unfair, the Valerie Plame "scandal" for instance.  Day after day of press coverage--and, in the end, it turns out that there was no wrong-doing at all.

More legitimate were the complaints that Bush and his Republican allies in congress were abandoning the conservative economic principles that had got them elected.  I once spoke at a political gathering where I complained about congressional Republicans spending like drunked sailors.  Afterward, a military vet told me I had been unfair--to drunken sailors.  A sailor might was an entire paycheck on a drinking spree, but, when the money was gone, that was it.  Couldn't just keep drinking and pile up debts on someone else's tab!  Those Republicans that later morphed into the Tea Party were especially disgusted by Republican pork-barrel spending, and, when you alienate a core constitutiency, that's going to creat problems.

But, when all is said and done, I think the problem for Bush, in part, is the closing number.  In theater, the keys to a memorable performance are a great first number that gets the audience hooked, and a great closing number that sends them home with smiles on their faces and a song in their hearts.  2008 turned out to be a not-so-good final song. 

The problem, this time, really was the economy.  Collapsing housing prices and unpaid mortgage liabilities led to a potential disaster in the banking industry that was already sending ripples across the entire economy.  Bush’s first response to the initial economic slowdown was to push through Congress a stimulus package that sent $500 to taxpayers directly.  Didn’t do any good.  And then we ended up with a real crisis—and Bush and the Democrats in Congress responded with TARP—the toxic assets relief program--$750 billion to bailout the banks, etc.  Now the majority of Dems voted for TARP, the majority of Republicans against it.  But the Republicans got the blame because the president was a Republican—and Bush set the stage for some real difficulties for his party in 2008.